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Tropical Storm Chris – Day 3

/Tropical Storm ChrisPosition: 43.6N 42.9W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North [000°] near 14 mph [22 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph [100 kph].
Wind Gusts: 80 mph [130 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 70 miles [110 km].
Minimum central pressure: 987 mb ↓.

Currently about 540 miles [ 870 km] East-Southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

This is the first hurricane of the season, and it should have been weakening at those latitudes, not strengthening. The old assumptions aren’t very reliable anymore.

Chris is back down to Tropical Storm strength and making the expected turn.


1 Steve Bates { 06.21.12 at 10:32 pm }

That aforementioned area entering the Gulf is now at 70 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation. The models are all over the place… you could get it; I could get it; or as you say, the Florida peninsula west coast could get it.

You are right about assumptions: the old forecasting approaches are showing the wear and tear of the new weather patterns. But it’s not due to global climate change, because… oh, look, Al Gore looks old these days!

2 Bryan { 06.22.12 at 12:13 am }

I’m watching it. It is dependent on how long the wind shear hangs on, whether the dry air in the northern Gulf is drawn in, and whether the passing low pressure trough pulls it East.

The Gulf is warm enough for some development into a tropical system, but how strong and where it will go is up for grabs. For a while it looked like the western tip would break off and head your way, but that died down.

What no one needs is for the sucker to stall in the Gulf and spin up.