Tropical Storm Debby – Day 2
Position: 28.3N 85.9W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Nearly Stationary.
Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph [ 95 kph].
Wind Gusts: 70 mph [110 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 200 miles [325 km].
Minimum central pressure: 991 mb ↑.
Currently about 110 miles [ 180 km] South-Southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast from the Mississippi-Alabama border East to the Suwannee River, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast from South of the Suwannee River to Englewood, Florida.
The forecast track has changed. It has moved from the central Texas coast to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Instead of going North, it is drifting Northeast and is currently almost due South of my location. The forecasters discussion admits that the trough might be strong enough to pull the storm to the East, rather than the ridge pushing it to the West.
In conclusion, it might hit the mouth of the Mississippi, or it might hit the ‘armpit’ of Florida, but they can’t sure. Just as long as it doesn’t pull an Elena and spend a couple of days wandering back and forth in the northern Gulf, unsure of where it wanted to go.
The 4PM update shows a totally new track forecast with Apalachicola as the new target. The Warning for Louisiana has been discontinued. From the local wind I knew that the storm was to the East of my location, but it is moving slowly, indicating weak steering, so anything is still possible. The slow movement also impedes strengthening as cooler water is pulled to the surface which reduces available energy.
Oh, great, since 7PM CDT it has just been sitting there going nowhere and dumping rain on the part of Florida in the Eastern time zone. The good news is that the Everglades needed more water flow and is getting it.
Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.
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4 comments
Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger makes it clear that you can read just about anything into Debby that you want to. It’s increasingly looking as if it will not come to Texas, but when a storm is out there careening one way and another, stalling for hours at a time, I don’t have confidence in anyone’s forecast. Good luck with whatever you get.
Elena came to mind because it was pulled East by a low pressure trough, but then got pushed West by a high pressure ridge that built in North of it. Of course, it was a Cat 3. This storm is still being held in check by wind shear from the northwest and dry air. So far we have light rains and almost no wind.
we’ve been getting some wind, some rain, and very high tides in the bays and bayous. the water in the bayou closest to me is easily 6″, maybe 12″, deeper than it was from the epic 100-year rain/flooding we had just recently.
I was watching the radar loop last night and the outer band on this storm was north of Atlanta over to west of New Orleans. Just a series of nasty looking thunderstorm cells zipping along an arc in a counterclockwise direction. It is big enough and slow-moving enough to push a lot of water around.
It looks like it will be out in the Gulf for most of the week.