The Problem With Plans
Via Lurch’s post, Why We Lost, at Main and Central, through James Wolcott’s piece, Irrationalizations, you arrive at John Robb’s original analysis, Rationalizations And Warfare at Global Guerrillas.
John speculates on all the excuses that people are going to invent when we finally have to admit that the Iraq War is a lost cause and we need to get out.
It isn’t enough to say it was the wrong war at the wrong time with the wrong opponent, and we went in based on a string of lies required to pay homage to an ideological fantasy called neoconservatism. The military and pundits are going to want to “learn lessons” from the disaster that will support book deals and speaking engagements.
Generalissimo A.V. Suvorov was a wise man and great military leader. He said that he didn’t make detailed plans for battles because, to work, your enemy would have to have a copy of the plan and agree to act as expected.
The biggest problem the “conventional” military has with guerrilla wars is that the opposition has no set plan or objectives. All the guerrilla force is required to do is create disorder and stay alive. They don’t have to protect supply lines or capture territory; their purpose is served if anyone dies or anything is destroyed. These actions fall more on the law enforcement than the military side of the ledger.
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John Kerry got hooted down for suggesting that fighting terrorism was a law enforcement issue, but it makes sense. Cops have no idea what they’re going to face on the street every day; criminals don’t plan ahead unless they’re Dr. Evil, and therefore police have to be ready for everything, think on the fly, and just keep catching the bad guys. There’s no such thing as a peace treaty in law enforcement; you just have to keep doing it, keep cool, and do everything you can to keep on top of it while keeping some semblance of peace and civility for the civilians. It’s a delicate balance in a “democratic” society.
I spent a few days in Madrid when Franco was still in power. There was a cop on every street and no one got mugged. Of course, there was no dissent, either. What kind of choice is that?
The Guardia Civil weren’t exactly “cops”. I was in Spain on a regular basis when Franco was in power, and that is the vision of “law enforcement” that the Shrubbery would like.
People would get a little annoyed if we decided to bomb a US neighborhood because of gangs, but that’s what is happening in Iraq. Al Qaeda as a crime family works as a concept, and that’s how they should be treated.