For The Record

Back when the Shrubbery was planning his invasion of Iraq, I wasn’t blogging. While I opposed the entire operation, I did it on discussion lists, so who knows where the record is.

My basic argument was it made no sense to invade Iraq because we had Saddam between a rock and a hard place with the US/UK air supremacy and most of the infrastructure needed for the production of WMDs was seriously degraded by Operation Desert Fox in the late 1990s.

If he did anything, or tried anything, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait would provide the troops needed to invade, but there had to be a real provocation by Iraq.

Based on what happened in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, I agreed with the coalition that fought the first Gulf War: overthrowing the government in Iraq would cause the artificial construct of Iraq to collapse – just like Yugoslavia.

Iran is a different case that is going to be even nastier. There isn’t the level of diversity in Iran, as there was in Iraq. The Iranian government is controlled by people who participated in the overthrow of the Shah, and it has been tempered by the Iran-Iraq war. The military is commanded by combat veterans.

Their military equipment is a blend of cheap old technology and modern Russian and Chinese weapons. They have the ability to manufacture their own weapons, and to improve on the systems they have purchased abroad.

Geography works in Iran’s favor, giving them control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and putting a major portion of the Middle East oil supply within easy range of their weapons. They can mine the Persian Gulf with a mix of World War I era contact mines and modern active mines, as well as artillery, rocket, and missile coverage from mountain locations.

They have allies among the Shi’ia in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Afghanistan than could be devastating to US and allied troops in the area. The Israelis would reasonably feel threatened by Hezbollah if the US were to attack Iran.

There is no real, demonstrated advantage to attacking Iran for the US. The price of oil would skyrocket and possibly drive the world into economic chaos. The US has already admitted it lacks hard intelligence about Iran, which means that the target selection is not certain. If we don’t know for certain if there is a weapons program, than it is obvious that we don’t know where the program facilities are located. The only targets would be dual use facilities, with no guarantees that they are necessary to weapons production. The bombing campaign might eliminate Iran’s civilian program and leave the weapons program intact.

Attacking Iran would be an incredibly stupid action that would cost American lives, produce economic chaos, and alienate the US from the rest of the world.

Unfortunately, as Billmon notes, that probably won’t make a difference.